At the
weekend I joined over
100,000 other people marching for a ‘People's Vote’ in London. This marked
the second anniversary of when Britain narrowly voted to leave the European
Union. Negotiations to formally leave the EU have been ongoing for the last 15
months. As things currently stand, Britain will Brexit on 29 March 2019.
Forget soft or hard Brexit, neither
seems likely to happen. There is hardly any sign that Britain is heading
towards a soft Brexit, where Britain remains inside the Single Market and the Customs
Union after Brexit. The House of Commons
recently rejected the opportunity to stay within the European Economic Area
(EEA). The Conservative Government appears reluctant to commit to any kind of
customs union, especially since the Labour opposition now support ‘a customs
union’. The linchpin of any soft Brexit is membership of the
European Free Trade Association (EFTA). However, there is no sign that either
the government nor the opposition is considering EFTA membership, let alone actively
putting together a formal application to re-join EFTA.
As for a hard Brexit, the EU is
unlikely to grant a Brexit deal that allows for all of the current benefits
with none of the costs. Tory Brexit fantasists who dream of a ‘Global Britain’
are living in a previous century. With the rise of right wing populists in
central Europe from Italy to Austria and potentially even Germany; there is
even less chance of Brussels conceding to the wishes of hard Brexiters. Added
to this, the lucrative trade deals that were promised by hard Brexiters seem
currently next to non-existent. Hard Brexit was always a delusional fantasy and
as reality begins to dawn this is especially the case.
There are only three possible
outcomes to the Brexit negotiations; No Brexit, Free Fall Brexit and Zombie
Brexit.
No Brexit
A No Brexit scenario is where
Britain doesn't leave the EU after all. It may be the case that after two years
of negotiations, given the looming impact on the economy and businesses
quitting the UK, that government ministers pull the plug on Brexit. It may also
prove to be the case that due to a mixture of government incompetence and
unrealistic expectations that the Brexit negotiations fall flat. Should the
issue of the Northern Ireland border prove to be insurmountable, then the
government could choose to abandon Brexit as the best way of maintaining peace
on the island of Ireland.
There would be an obvious political
cost to a government that has devoted itself to the project of Brexit. Right wing
newspapers would be merciless in their attacks on the government. The Prime
Minister may be forced to resign and the Conservative Party itself could
fracture. The potential political chaos of a No Brexit scenario would be minuscule compared to the potential economic and diplomatic chaos caused by the
next possible Brexit outcome.
Free Fall Brexit
Unlike with the No Brexit scenario,
where Britain steps back from the cliff edge; this event is where we
collectively jump off the cliff. This is when negotiations fall flat and come to
nothing and we choose to Brexit regardless. No transition deal, no economic
safety net, no protection for citizens' rights, no open border on the island of Ireland, no trade deal and no
preparation for the loss of EU rules and regulations. In other words, Britain
goes into free fall.
This could potentially be the
biggest political crisis in modern British political history. The worst-case
scenario would be like the Suez Crisis and the 2008 Financial Crisis rolled
into one. This would leave lasting (and possibly permanent) damage to our
economy, our living standards and our diplomatic relations around the world.
There is another potential fear
attached to a Free Fall Brexit and that is the rise of political extremism. Far
from undermining the hard right, a Free Fall Brexit could embolden them yet
further. Take for example the
rise of hate crimes that followed the Brexit vote in 2016. An uglier, more
hateful and nationalistic form of politics could emerge if we collectively jump
off a cliff edge.
Zombie Brexit
The final possible outcome of Brexit
is a Zombie Brexit. This is where Britain is kept in a perpetual limbo state
many years after officially leaving the European Union. This is the fudge of a
never-ending Brexit transition deal; where Britain is neither officially inside
nor outside the Customs Union and the Single Market. Britain would be unable to
strike trade deals with other countries and membership of EFTA would be
impossible. Britain would be utterly powerless, both politically and
economically; nothing more than a voiceless piece of flotsam and jetsam on the periphery
of a European economic superpower.
The effect on the country would be a
state of semi-permanent political and economic paralysis. Uncertainty for
business would be rife and as a result Britain would be over-exposed to any future economic crisis. This Brexit of the living dead would achieve one unexpected
outcome, which is managing to enrage A.C. Grayling, Anna Soubry and Jacob Rees-Mogg
in equal measure. This zombie-like fudge of a Brexit would satisfy neither Remainers,
nor soft Brexiters, nor hard Brexiters.
A People’s Vote: Our Last Hope?
As the Brexit deadline looms ever
nearer, one of these outcomes seems extremely likely. None come without
consequences, however the No Brexit scenario is by far the least damaging. There
may however be one way for the government to limit the potential risks and that
is to hold a ‘People's Vote’ in early 2019. Ironically this could offer the
Tory government the only meaningful way of saving face when confronted with the
potential calamity of Brexit. Should the Tories refuse to give the people the
final say, then their electoral prospects look dire regardless of which outcome
comes to pass. However, this is nothing compared to the lasting damage of a Zombie
or Free Fall Brexit. By accident or design Brexit must be stopped. Britain's
place in the 21st century depends upon it.
