For the Liberal
Democrats the general election was the worst in terms of seats won since 1970. No
one expected the Lib Dems to be reduced to just eight seats. This article will
examine where the Lib Dems went wrong and what could account for such a
dreadful result.
Losing Trust
The Liberal
Democrats were right to go into Coalition, but we made a few massive mistakes
none bigger than the decision over tuition fees. For much of the last few
decades the Lib Dems prided themselves on trust. In the 2010 general election hundreds
of thousands of young voters voted for the party over its policy to abolish
tuition fees. Famously, Nick Clegg and a few other Lib Dem MPs broke their
pledges not to increase tuition fees (although 21 Lib Dem MPs kept their
pledges). This action to increase tuition fees was seen in the eyes of many
young voters as a betrayal. Despite the repeated attempts by Nick Clegg and
other Lib Dem ministers to explain the new tuition fees policy, their message
was simply ineffective given the loss of trust. More than any other issue
tuition fees destroyed the Lib Dem reputation for trust from which the party
never recovered during its time in Coalition.
Coalition Conformity and the loss of
Identity
The Conservative-Lib
Dem Coalition was the first coalition since 1945. Therefore the leadership of
the Lib Dems felt an added burden on proving that coalitions could result in
stable governments. While no one would doubt that the Coalition was stable, the
sense of Coalition conformity that resulted from the commitment to the Coalition
ended up in a loss of identity for the party. The Lib Dem identity became
almost unrecognisable with both Tory and Lib Dem ministers in every major
department. The party also completely failed to successfully differentiate
itself from its coalition partners. Although we undoubtedly made the Coalition
fairer than it otherwise would have been; ultimately the net result of our
efforts was to detoxify the Tory party and toxify our own party.
Demolition of the Local Government
base
In electoral
terms there was clear evidence that the party strategy was not yielding any
reward. From 2011 until 2015 the party lost thousands of councillors. For a
party that depends on having a strong local government base in order to win at a
parliamentary level, this was a major blow to our ambitions at the general
election. Added to this the party suffered massive setbacks in Scotland, Wales,
London and in the European Elections. Although our local government base held
up relatively well in some part of southern England, in northern England and
Scotland it was annihilated. We should have realised much earlier on in 2011 or
2012 that the loss of our local government base was a harbinger of disaster in
the general election.
Valueless Centrism
The
leadership ditched the party's historic centre-left stance in favour of a
committed centrism. Their aim was to try and revive the mythical equidistance
of the past. At a time when the party leadership needed to renew its distinctive
centre-left values it abandoned them. The strategy of equidistance and centrism
was always doomed to fail. How can you be truly equidistance when you're in
coalition with a centre-right party and refuse to defend your historic
centre-left values? The party has never been truly equidistant, even in the
Ashdown years the party was closer to the Labour, shown through the speculation
of a Labour-Lib Dem coalition in 1992 and the Blair-Ashdown talks of the
mid-1990s. Centrist equidistance was a failed strategy instead we should have
outlined a much more distinctive left of centre liberal platform to engage our
lost voters and to enable us to much more effectively differentiate us from the
Tories.
Defending the Status Quo
People don’t
vote for coalitions. I hate to say it but it's true. People vote for political
parties. To frame an entire election campaign around forming a future coalition
alienated voters from the radicalism of the Lib Dems. The party became the only
true defender of the Coalition status quo. Instead of giving people reasons to
vote for a future Lib Dem government we were giving voters early compromises on
a potential future coalition. No party can both claim to be radical and defend
the status quo. This was at a time when other parties were challenging the
status quo; the Lib Dems became in the eyes of the public the most
uninteresting of the parties. The party's leadership lost touch with its core
radicalism and instead became the party of "stability, unity and decency.”
The Lib Dems should know more than any other party that there are few votes in
defending the status quo especially when you are a third or fourth party.
Learning the Lessons
The party
has an uphill battle to regain the trust of the public, especially amongst young
people. We should ensure that any future signed party pledges are amongst our
election priorities. We failed to do this with tuition fees in 2010 and we paid
the price.
In any
future coalitions instead of trying to cover all departments we should have
ministers in the leading departments and have a department entirely for our
ministers to demonstrate Lib Dem policies in action. A good example of such a
department would be the Department for Education.
The future
leadership of the party should realise that if the current strategy is
resulting in massive electoral losses that the party should change it promptly.
Equidistant centrism has been a disaster for our party; the party will have to
return to its centre-left roots if it is to recover its lost support.
Liberals
should never defend the status quo, they should always seek to change it. Losing
touch with our core radicalism was the final nail in the coffin of the party's
electoral ambitions. The party must learn from its lessons so that in the
future the great cause of liberalism can rise again.
The problem is that the current strategy is still to pretend that the loss of trust will eventually mend without us dealing with the fundamental cause. The cause was that Nick and others chose to break the pledge.
ReplyDeleteThis was wrong and we have to say so clearly and in public, even if Nick and quite a few others don't like it.
If we don't we just have to wait for people to forget and that will take a couple of generations and I don't think that the party will survive that long. If we do, we have a chance, an outside chance, we may make some progress before 2020 (measured in councillor numbers).