2015: A Landmark Year in British Politics?

The State of the Political Parties

2015 has the potential to be a landmark year in British politics. The general election that is likely to happen on 7^th May 2015 is both the most exciting election and the most unpredictable election since 1974. There are six political parties that are getting noteworthy support: the Conservative Party, the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats, the UK Independence Party (UKIP), the Green Party and the Scottish National Party (SNP).

Conservative Party

David Cameron has been the Prime Minister for the last five years and he will be aiming to win a second term in government. It seems very unlikely due to the electoral arithmetic that the Conservatives will win an outright majority. More likely, the Tories could be the largest party again in a Hung Parliament. Over the past year the Tories have been fighting a right wing rearguard action against UKIP; following the defection of two Tory MPs to UKIP in the last few months. The Tories will aim to move the political argument away from immigration and onto the economy. Tory strategists anticipate that their management of the economy will be their biggest vote winner in 2015.

Labour Party

Throughout 2014, the Labour Party has been narrowly ahead of the Conservatives in the opinion polls. If this trend holds until election day, Labour could win the election outright but with a small majority. Failing that, Labour could seek to be the biggest party in another Hung Parliament. Despite Labour being more popular in the opinion polls, Ed Miliband is far less popular than David Cameron in the leadership polls. For Labour the big issue in 2015 is likely to be living standards. Despite reasonable economic growth, there is still considerable youth unemployment and up until very recently inflation was far above wage increases. Unpopular policies like cuts to public services and the bedroom tax as well as the potential for a crisis in the NHS, will be vote winners for Labour in 2015.

Liberal Democrats

Over the last Parliament the Liberal Democrats have lost over half of its electoral support and has been repeatedly hammered at the ballot box. However despite this, the Liberal Democrats are the most likely party to still be in power after May 2015 especially if there is another Hung Parliament. Furthermore, incumbent Lib Dem MPs are on average much more popular than their Labour or Tory counterparts. As a result the Lib Dems might hold onto more seats than the opinion polls are currently predicting due to the strength of their local incumbency. The Lib Dem leadership is trying to strike a balance between a stronger economy and a fairer society. In 2015, the ambition of the Lib Dem leadership is to be once again the kingmaker in another Hung Parliament.

UKIP

UKIP over the last two years has taken advantage of angry protest voters who are dissatisfied with the mainstream parties. This has led to a considerable rise in UKIP’s support making them the third most popular party in most opinion polls. In May 2014, UKIP won the European Elections. UKIP benefited this year from two defections from the Conservative Party and two subsequent by-election victories. UKIP in 2015 will be focusing primarily on the issue of immigration hoping to win support from traditional Tory voters as well as some angry Labour voters. UKIP will be hoping to win several seats in parliament in 2015.

Green Party

Over the last few months, the Green Party has seen a notable rise in its support in the opinion polls. In a few opinion polls the Greens even briefly overtook the Lib Dems. Of the six parties, the Greens are the most left wing and have adopted a socialist economic platform, thus making them the most anti-austerity party of those that I have mentioned. Despite their rise in support, the Greens are unlikely to win more than two or three seats in 2015 due to the electoral system. However 2015 might act as preparation for a true electoral breakthrough for the Greens in 2020.

Scottish National Party

The SNP are undoubtedly the party of 2014. The political year was dominated by the run-up to the Scottish independence referendum and its aftermath. Despite the Unionist parties being victorious; the SNP has seen an astonishing rise in its political support in the aftermath of the referendum. The Scottish National Party is now the third largest party in Britain after its membership more than trebled after the referendum. In the opinion polls the SNP vote has soared in Scotland. The rise of the SNP has placed Scottish Labour in deep peril. Nicola Sturgeon will be aiming for the SNP to become the largest party in Scotland at the general election. Some opinion polls have shown the Scottish National Party winning over 40 seats in Scotland.

Another Hung Parliament?

As we go into 2015 and it looks very unlikely that any political party will be able to win an overall majority. Another Hung Parliament is probably the most likely outcome of the next general election. 2015 will likely test the first past the post voting system like never before. When six political parties are getting a considerable share of the vote, a voting system that only benefits two parties will see not only outdated but undemocratic. The implications on the British constitution of another Hung Parliament are profound and are unprecedented.  

Who will be the next Deputy Prime Minister?

General elections are dominated by speculation of who could be the next Prime Minister; however in 2015 as much speculation might be paid to who could be the next Deputy Prime Minister.

Nick Clegg will be hopeful of winning a second term as Deputy Prime Minister. The Liberal Democrats could potentially go into coalition with either the Conservatives or Labour. However, will the party have much appetite for another coalition with the Conservatives, especially from the perspective of the social liberals within the party? Furthermore, will the Orange Bookers have much enthusiasm for a coalition with Labour after opposing them for five years?

If UKIP’s support surge is realised in 2015 it is not entirely impossible that Nigel Farage could hold the balance of power. It is likely that UKIP could form a right wing coalition with the Conservatives, however Farage hasn't ruled out doing a deal with the Labour Party. Farage will no doubt call for strict limits on immigration as well as an immediate referendum on Britain's membership of the EU.

Alex Salmond (if he is returned as an MP) could hold the balance of power in a Hung Parliament in 2015 especially if the SNP become the largest party in Scotland. The SNP won't work with the Conservatives however Salmond could strike a deal with Labour which more than likely will include devolving considerably more powers to the Scottish Parliament.

Two General Elections in 2015?

At the beginning of this article I compared the 2015 general election to 1974. In 1974, there were two general elections in one year. Could the same happen again in 2015? If there is an indecisive result will either Labour or the Conservatives take the opportunity of having a second general election at the end of 2015? This is exactly what Harold Wilson did in 1974. Labour was the biggest party in a Hung Parliament after the February election, however the Liberal Party didn't have enough seats to form a coalition with either party. A few months later, Wilson called another election in October 1974. Could either Cameron or Miliband in 2015 follow Wilson's example and call a second election, if no viable government or coalition can be formed after the first election?

Austerity Forever in 2015?

Britain has been experiencing austerity since 2008. In Britain, the Conservatives are talking about continuing austerity until 2020. Tory austerity will negatively impact upon already squeezed local government budgets and will lead to additional cuts in public services and the welfare state. Labour and the Liberal Democrats will cut less than the Conservatives and increase taxes on the wealthy in order to reduce the deficit.

There are small cracks emerging in the austerity consensus. The SNP and the Greens have been running increasingly on an anti-austerity platform. Even within the political mainstream; social democrats in the Labour Party and social liberals in the Liberal Democrats are tiring of austerity and are contemplating a Keynesian alternative. Added to this, the austerity policies of the Eurozone might change if left wing governments get elected in Greece and Spain. Could 2015 be the last austerity election?

The Future of British Politics

The general election in 2015 could be a landmark election. It will certainly be very exciting and might be the defining election of a generation. It may even have the potential to usher in a new era in British politics similar to the elections in 1906, 1918, 1945, and 1979. What is beyond question is that British politics has never been more interesting and British democracy never more exciting.

After the Referendum: Now is the Time for Radical Political Reform

“A revolutionary moment in the world's history is a time for revolutions, not for patching.” – William Beveridge

The Scottish Referendum

Scotland has just voted to remain a part of the United Kingdom by 55% to 45%. The Scottish referendum has been the most extra ordinary display of democracy and political engagement. The turnout figure of 85% in itself has broken all modern records for British electoral turnouts. Now the UK will never be the same again. Britain must see radical political reform in the aftermath of the Scottish referendum.

                                                              

Time for a Constitutional Convention

This radical political reform must come across the United Kingdom. The move towards Scottish Home Rule is now inevitable, but power must also be shifted to Wales, Northern Ireland and the English regions. Britain is on its way to becoming a federal country. In the aftermath of the Scottish referendum, the constitutional settlement of the UK must be renewed. This can only be achieved by establishing a Constitutional Convention.

The Constitutional Convention should aim to disperse power away from Westminster towards all the other parts of the UK, but it should also make British politics fit for the 21st century. England is one of the most centralised nations in Europe; therefore it is necessary to give power to England on a regional basis. This would take account of the English North-South divide. It could take the form of Regional Assemblies or the form of empowered English city regions and empowered English counties. 

In time, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and the English regions should have full federal powers. This would leave the Federal Parliament in Westminster to have authority over issues such as foreign affairs, defence, immigration, national security, foreign development, international trade, Constitutional affairs, national economic policy and national welfare policy. The states of a federal Britain would have control over the other policy areas.

The cornerstone of this federal system would be a formal written constitution accompanied by a Bill of Rights. A Bill of Rights should not only protect political and civil rights, but also social rights. Social rights such as a right to free health care, a right to a free education, a right to have access to social security, a right to join a trade union and the right to be paid a fair wage. When scare stories about federalism are told they usually refer to the inequality of the American system. A federal Britain would not be viable without the very commitment to social rights that the American Constitution is lacking. As a centre-left liberal I could accept nothing less.

A British Constitutional Convention should also determine whether it is acceptable to have a second chamber made up of aristocrats, bishops and political appointees. Surely, the House of Lords will have to be elected and accountable to the British people. This also raises questions about what voting system should be used to elect the Houses of Parliament. First past the post is clearly an outdated and unfair voting system a move towards a more proportional system such as the single transferable vote (STV) is much more desirable.

Finally, one of the outstanding successes of the Scottish referendum debate was the decision to give 16 and 17 year olds the right to vote. The momentum behind votes at 16 is now unstoppable. 16 and 17 year olds should be fully enfranchised and entitled to vote in time for the next general election in 2015.

                                               

A Voice for the Disenfranchised

            Thousands of voters who had never voted before were engaged by the Scottish referendum debate. These were not just 16 and 17 year olds but thousands of adults who have never been willing to vote before. It is vital that politicians from across Britain realise that they need to engage with a disenfranchised minority who do not believe that the main parties represent them. This is most notably the case in poorest areas of Britain. A process of federalisation and constitutional reform is certainly a means to engage more people in politics. Hopefully the decentralisation of power will make politicians at the grassroots level more responsive to the concerns of those disenfranchised voters who feel they haven’t got a stake in our political system.

            People should avoid the dog whistle politics of English nationalism coming from UKIP and the Tory backbenchers. Nationalism only seeks to divide people. It is up to the progressive parties namely the Liberal Democrats and Labour to oppose this nationalism and actively seek to engage with disillusioned working class voters.

The Liberal Hour has come               

                                                                   

As of this morning, political reform is in the mainstream. MPs of all the main parties are talking about reforms to the British Constitution. What is a liberal party for if not to champion political reform. The Liberal hour has truly arrived. The Liberal Democrats for so long have been the masters of political reform and they must lead the debate to come. Liberal Democrats are the vanguard of constitutional reform; now is the time for a more liberal and a more democratic Britain to emerge.

This is a once in a lifetime opportunity to overhaul the entire British constitution and it is an opportunity that the Liberal Democrats cannot miss. For decades Lib Dems have been discussing constitutional reform now it is being discussed at the highest level. There may not be another opportunity like this again for several more decades. Hence it is up to senior Lib Dems to ensure that Britain makes a bold break from the past and that British politics is fit for the 21st century.

It is now very likely that in the 2015 general election the West Lothian question (also called the English question) will be a key issue. The Lib Dems must answer this question with a single word: federalism. The Lib Dems must position themselves as the party of federalism. Political reform and federalism must be a central pillar of the 2015 General Election campaign.

The Last 24 Hours

            After the last 24 hours no one can say that British politics is boring. Scotland might have voted to stay a part of the United Kingdom but the whole British Constitution is now up for review. The Scottish referendum which was so long represented the possibility of breaking up the UK now has the potential to renew it. Only Liberal Democrats can lead this change because we have political reform in our blood. The Scottish referendum reinvigorated democracy in Scotland; now let's reinvigorate democracy across the rest of the UK.

Labour’s Welsh First Past The Post Stitch Up

At last the Labour Party has shown its true colours on electoral reform. Just months after over half the Labour Party vocally opposed the Alternative Vote Referendum, a major policy shift has emerged in Wales that threatens the very notion of Welsh democracy. This is a policy put forward by the shadow Welsh secretary, Peter Hain which aims to change the Welsh Assembly voting system from the Additional Member System to First Past the Post. The current system used in the Welsh Assembly is an Additional Member System made up of 40 seats elected on a constituency First Past the Post basis; with the remaining 20 seats elected by Proportional Representation on a regional list basis. The plan by the shadow Welsh secretary is to reform the Welsh voting system to the Welsh Assembly not by bringing it into the 21st century but by dragging it back into the electoral dark ages.

The Welsh Labour Party draws its impetus to rejuvenate First Past the Post in Wales from two sources. Firstly, the defeat of the Alternative Vote Referendum and secondly, the plan by Westminster MPs to reduce the number of MPs in Wales from 40 to 30. Added to this notion, the plan put forward by the Welsh Labour Party would see Welsh constituencies in the Welsh Assembly elect two members per constituency. This abolition of the Proportional Representation regional list would make the Welsh Assembly truly determinant on First Past the Post and that could only ever benefit one political party, that of the Labour Party. Labour has emerged in all four assembly elections as the largest party and with the added advantage of total First Past the Post Labour would receive an absolute majority in the Welsh Assembly after every election. Wales would truly become a one party state. This is nothing more than a stitch up by the Labour Party designed to move the goalposts of democracy in Wales in order to benefit itself and undermine the opposition parties in the assembly. In the latest election held in May of this year the Conservatives, Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats received the majority of their seats from the regional list. First past the post would clearly undermine the three opposition parties in the Welsh Assembly and strengthen the position of the Labour Party and its First Minister, Carwyn Jones.

I for one have always been quite dubious of the claims of the Labour Party to favour of electoral reform after their opposition to the Alternative Vote, this policy shift in Wales surely puts that notion to rest. Labour has nothing to offer when it comes to electoral reform. They are not liberal and progressive in this respect, they are conservative and traditionalist. And their aims are truly tribalist and self-interested. In Wales as well as in the rest of the United Kingdom they support First Past the Post solely because it benefits themselves. Hopefully, the people of Wales will see through this stitch up by the Labour Party especially given the Welsh political traditions of Liberalism and Radicalism. The idea of electoral reform to Labour is not to insure that everybody's vote has equal weight and equal value and that election results are determined fairly with each party getting a fair and accurate proportional of the seats but by ensuring that more people are disenfranchised, less votes count, the parties have fewer representatives and that democracy as an institution is undermined. Labour has once more shown their true colours when it comes to electoral reform. They are willing to stitch up democracy in order to benefit themselves and not the votes of the people, whether it is their majority opposition to the Alternative Vote or the fact that they are willing to introduce First Past the Post in the Welsh Assembly, Labour cannot be trusted on electoral reform. There is only one political party that can be trusted to reform British politics and Britain's electoral system and that is the Liberal Democrats. See the article regarding Labour’s plans here: http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2011/07/14/first-past-the-post-for-senedd-has-labour-vote-91466-29049445/