2015: A Landmark Year in British Politics?

The State of the Political Parties

2015 has the potential to be a landmark year in British politics. The general election that is likely to happen on 7^th May 2015 is both the most exciting election and the most unpredictable election since 1974. There are six political parties that are getting noteworthy support: the Conservative Party, the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats, the UK Independence Party (UKIP), the Green Party and the Scottish National Party (SNP).

Conservative Party

David Cameron has been the Prime Minister for the last five years and he will be aiming to win a second term in government. It seems very unlikely due to the electoral arithmetic that the Conservatives will win an outright majority. More likely, the Tories could be the largest party again in a Hung Parliament. Over the past year the Tories have been fighting a right wing rearguard action against UKIP; following the defection of two Tory MPs to UKIP in the last few months. The Tories will aim to move the political argument away from immigration and onto the economy. Tory strategists anticipate that their management of the economy will be their biggest vote winner in 2015.

Labour Party

Throughout 2014, the Labour Party has been narrowly ahead of the Conservatives in the opinion polls. If this trend holds until election day, Labour could win the election outright but with a small majority. Failing that, Labour could seek to be the biggest party in another Hung Parliament. Despite Labour being more popular in the opinion polls, Ed Miliband is far less popular than David Cameron in the leadership polls. For Labour the big issue in 2015 is likely to be living standards. Despite reasonable economic growth, there is still considerable youth unemployment and up until very recently inflation was far above wage increases. Unpopular policies like cuts to public services and the bedroom tax as well as the potential for a crisis in the NHS, will be vote winners for Labour in 2015.

Liberal Democrats

Over the last Parliament the Liberal Democrats have lost over half of its electoral support and has been repeatedly hammered at the ballot box. However despite this, the Liberal Democrats are the most likely party to still be in power after May 2015 especially if there is another Hung Parliament. Furthermore, incumbent Lib Dem MPs are on average much more popular than their Labour or Tory counterparts. As a result the Lib Dems might hold onto more seats than the opinion polls are currently predicting due to the strength of their local incumbency. The Lib Dem leadership is trying to strike a balance between a stronger economy and a fairer society. In 2015, the ambition of the Lib Dem leadership is to be once again the kingmaker in another Hung Parliament.

UKIP

UKIP over the last two years has taken advantage of angry protest voters who are dissatisfied with the mainstream parties. This has led to a considerable rise in UKIP’s support making them the third most popular party in most opinion polls. In May 2014, UKIP won the European Elections. UKIP benefited this year from two defections from the Conservative Party and two subsequent by-election victories. UKIP in 2015 will be focusing primarily on the issue of immigration hoping to win support from traditional Tory voters as well as some angry Labour voters. UKIP will be hoping to win several seats in parliament in 2015.

Green Party

Over the last few months, the Green Party has seen a notable rise in its support in the opinion polls. In a few opinion polls the Greens even briefly overtook the Lib Dems. Of the six parties, the Greens are the most left wing and have adopted a socialist economic platform, thus making them the most anti-austerity party of those that I have mentioned. Despite their rise in support, the Greens are unlikely to win more than two or three seats in 2015 due to the electoral system. However 2015 might act as preparation for a true electoral breakthrough for the Greens in 2020.

Scottish National Party

The SNP are undoubtedly the party of 2014. The political year was dominated by the run-up to the Scottish independence referendum and its aftermath. Despite the Unionist parties being victorious; the SNP has seen an astonishing rise in its political support in the aftermath of the referendum. The Scottish National Party is now the third largest party in Britain after its membership more than trebled after the referendum. In the opinion polls the SNP vote has soared in Scotland. The rise of the SNP has placed Scottish Labour in deep peril. Nicola Sturgeon will be aiming for the SNP to become the largest party in Scotland at the general election. Some opinion polls have shown the Scottish National Party winning over 40 seats in Scotland.

Another Hung Parliament?

As we go into 2015 and it looks very unlikely that any political party will be able to win an overall majority. Another Hung Parliament is probably the most likely outcome of the next general election. 2015 will likely test the first past the post voting system like never before. When six political parties are getting a considerable share of the vote, a voting system that only benefits two parties will see not only outdated but undemocratic. The implications on the British constitution of another Hung Parliament are profound and are unprecedented.  

Who will be the next Deputy Prime Minister?

General elections are dominated by speculation of who could be the next Prime Minister; however in 2015 as much speculation might be paid to who could be the next Deputy Prime Minister.

Nick Clegg will be hopeful of winning a second term as Deputy Prime Minister. The Liberal Democrats could potentially go into coalition with either the Conservatives or Labour. However, will the party have much appetite for another coalition with the Conservatives, especially from the perspective of the social liberals within the party? Furthermore, will the Orange Bookers have much enthusiasm for a coalition with Labour after opposing them for five years?

If UKIP’s support surge is realised in 2015 it is not entirely impossible that Nigel Farage could hold the balance of power. It is likely that UKIP could form a right wing coalition with the Conservatives, however Farage hasn't ruled out doing a deal with the Labour Party. Farage will no doubt call for strict limits on immigration as well as an immediate referendum on Britain's membership of the EU.

Alex Salmond (if he is returned as an MP) could hold the balance of power in a Hung Parliament in 2015 especially if the SNP become the largest party in Scotland. The SNP won't work with the Conservatives however Salmond could strike a deal with Labour which more than likely will include devolving considerably more powers to the Scottish Parliament.

Two General Elections in 2015?

At the beginning of this article I compared the 2015 general election to 1974. In 1974, there were two general elections in one year. Could the same happen again in 2015? If there is an indecisive result will either Labour or the Conservatives take the opportunity of having a second general election at the end of 2015? This is exactly what Harold Wilson did in 1974. Labour was the biggest party in a Hung Parliament after the February election, however the Liberal Party didn't have enough seats to form a coalition with either party. A few months later, Wilson called another election in October 1974. Could either Cameron or Miliband in 2015 follow Wilson's example and call a second election, if no viable government or coalition can be formed after the first election?

Austerity Forever in 2015?

Britain has been experiencing austerity since 2008. In Britain, the Conservatives are talking about continuing austerity until 2020. Tory austerity will negatively impact upon already squeezed local government budgets and will lead to additional cuts in public services and the welfare state. Labour and the Liberal Democrats will cut less than the Conservatives and increase taxes on the wealthy in order to reduce the deficit.

There are small cracks emerging in the austerity consensus. The SNP and the Greens have been running increasingly on an anti-austerity platform. Even within the political mainstream; social democrats in the Labour Party and social liberals in the Liberal Democrats are tiring of austerity and are contemplating a Keynesian alternative. Added to this, the austerity policies of the Eurozone might change if left wing governments get elected in Greece and Spain. Could 2015 be the last austerity election?

The Future of British Politics

The general election in 2015 could be a landmark election. It will certainly be very exciting and might be the defining election of a generation. It may even have the potential to usher in a new era in British politics similar to the elections in 1906, 1918, 1945, and 1979. What is beyond question is that British politics has never been more interesting and British democracy never more exciting.