Farewell EU. Hello Little Britain.

             In a few hours Britain will leave the European Union after 47 years of membership. This is a seismic moment in modern British political history, which will have an impact for years and decades to come. This brings to an end the first phase of the Brexit process with a transition period about to begin and the likelihood of a long trade negotiation with the EU ahead.



            While millions of Brexiters today may be happy, millions of other Britons are losing their EU citizenship, not to mention the impact on the 3 million citizens of other EU countries which currently live in the UK. As the clock strikes 11 tonight my EU citizenship shall be taken away from me against my will. For me and millions of other pro-Europeans this is not a moment of happiness, it is a moment of sadness, even anger. It represents the loss of a part of my political identity.



            What ‘Brexit Day’ truly represents is that Britain is turning its back on its responsibilities to be a leader of Europe alongside countries like France, Germany and Italy amongst others. The Brexiters point out of course that we are not leaving the continent of Europe, the British landmass is not about to magically move to another part of the globe. However, for me as a European my identity is not just defined by the fact that I happen to live on a bit of land which is called Europe, but that my country is a part of the political community of Europeans, that of the European Union. Europe is a part of my political identity and the EU is my political family.



            I am proud to be a Lancastrian, a Northerner, an Englishman, I am proud to be British and proud to be a European too. However, there is no escaping the fact that by the end of today a piece of my identity shall no longer be acknowledged by the British government. My rights as a European as a result will become more limited.



            Brexit was won on the back of right-wing populism and nationalism and insecurity about the future. Not to mention the Leave campaign’s misleading claims about money that could be given to the National Health Service and the potential of immigrants to enter this country from Turkey (a majority Muslim country), which has no realistic short-term prospects of becoming a member of the EU. Sadly, the Leave campaign capitalised on fears about NHS funding as well as standard dog whistle politics towards immigrants. The truth that EU migration has been a great benefit to this country has been largely overlooked by Brexiters.



            As for ‘taking back control’ this is a pipe dream and a delusional fantasy. In the age of globalisation, it is extremely difficult for any nation to truly have ‘sovereignty’. Ironically, our membership of the EU allowed us to amplify our sovereignty by pooling it with 27 other nation states striving towards collective common goals on the international stage. This enabled us to have effective international action on everything from combating climate change, to properly taxing big corporations, to securing workers’ rights. Britain’s political power in the world will be reduced because of Brexit and with it its international sovereignty will also be reduced.

Now Britain faces what is likely to be the farce of the coming trade negotiations with the EU and America. The British government will have to decide whether to closely align with the EU or move away from them towards US trade standards. Britain risks becoming a pawn beneath the umbrella of American hegemony. Corporate America is renowned for being a ruthless operator when it comes to demanding certain trade standards and when we see the potential opportunities for American corporations in everything from British food markets to health services, there are plenty of grounds for concern. Brexit will open up a far bigger challenge to Britain’s sovereignty than the EU could ever have posed.

After 1945, Britain had an obligation to work with the other nations of Europe in a political community to ensure that liberty, democracy and human rights would continue to thrive on the continent. Britain after all did more than any other Western European country to defeat fascism in the Second World War. At a time when nationalism and populism are rising in many countries in Europe again, it is vital that Britain would have remained committed to that political community as dark clouds were beginning to gather. But we have chosen to turn our backs on our European responsibilities. We have chosen to turn our backs on our nearest allies. We have ultimately chosen to turn our backs on an economic superpower with an economy almost as big as America’s and still far bigger than the economy of China.

From the times of the Roman Empire; to the Viking raids and the Norman Conquests; to the emergence of kingdoms and global empires; to the upheaval of the Protestant Reformation and the wars of religion; to the rise of Napoleon, Hitler and Stalin and the forces of nationalism, fascism and communism which would tear the continent apart; all that united Europeans was killing and death. Prior to 1945, generations of Europeans grew up knowing that they would inevitably be sent to kill other Europeans in distant parts of the continent. From the 1950s, starting with the European Coal and Steel Community, then the European Community and now the European Union, Europeans became united by more than just war and mutual hatred as they had been for time immemorial.

Now to be a European means freedom, democracy, social justice and equal rights for all. But above all the shared cooperation and free trade, there was one essential idea, peace. The EU first and foremost is the world’s most successful peace project. Where once Britons and Frenchmen were sent to kill one another; where once Germans were sent to kill Poles; where once Italians and Austrians killed each other; and where once Spaniards would kill Dutchmen; today they sit together as brothers, as Europeans. The former French President, François Mitterrand once famously stated that “nationalism is war”. If nationalism is war, then a united Europe is peace. Surely the idea of a united common community of Europe is worth fighting for.

Tonight, I will lose my EU citizenship rights. I will see my country betray its national destiny and its obligation to be a leader of a free, democratic and peaceful European political community. I hope my European brothers and sisters will continue to keep the dream of a free and united Europe alive. While Brexiters crow and cheer tonight, I remain hopeful that one day the UK will rejoin the EU and fulfil its obligation to be a leader of the European community of nations.

Stepping Back from Party Political Activism

Two weeks ago, on a train journey back from Bournemouth, I spoke with a fellow Liberal Democrat PhD student. He is a student in Vienna and was considering stepping back from party politics. It is safe to say that both PhDs and party politics take up considerable time.

Last year, I had hoped informally to step back from party politics when I started my PhD. Over the previous 12 months, I have not been successful at this. Amongst other things, I attended several conferences, stood as a paper candidate in the local elections and helped to edit two Lib Dem related books (including writing a chapter in one of them).

This week, I am starting my second year as a Politics PhD student at Lancaster University. So far everything is going well, I successfully passed my first-year panel and was upgraded at the first attempt, a few months ago. My workload is likely to increase this year especially as I am starting teaching first year Undergraduate Politics seminar classes, which is an exciting opportunity to somebody who aims for a career in academic teaching.

This naturally means there will be extreme limitations on my time. Earlier this month I stepped back from my position on the Social Liberal Forum Executive, as their Vice-Chair North, the Chair of their Editing and Publishing Board and the Social Media Manager. However, I have now decided that I will stand down from the Social Liberal Forum Council next Summer when the Council is once again up for election.

In addition, I will be stepping back from using Twitter. My days as a “keyboard warrior” are gradually coming to an end. Twitter currently tends to reflect the echo chamber of our contemporary political crisis. This in turn reinforces tribal party positions and facilitates aggressive partisan trolling. Such an environment is not healthy for my personal anxiety levels, especially as someone who has a pluralistic approach to politics. So, I will be limiting my presence on Twitter to my new Twitter account devoted to my academic work, teaching and research.

However, I have also now decided that it is right for me to take a step back from most aspects of Liberal Democrat party politics. This is especially the case given the likelihood of a general election in the next couple of months. In the previous two general elections I was the election agent for the Liberal Democrats in Blackpool South; however, my participation will be limited at best to an odd afternoon of leaflet delivering for the party at the next election.

I am not leaving the party, of course, but my involvement in party related activities will be very limited for the next 2-3 years while I complete my PhD. It is also likely that my attendance at party conferences will be limited over the next couple of years. I wish the best of luck to all those who remain active in the Liberal Democrats during this time, I am extremely hopeful that several of you will be elected MPs in the near future. You will undoubtedly serve your constituents, your party and your country exceptionally well.

The party currently has the ideal policy in relation to Brexit; Revoking Article 50 following the election of a Liberal Democrat majority government, or in the event of a hung parliament, negotiating for a People’s Vote referendum where the party would campaign to Remain in the EU. I would encourage the party to make the social justice case for the EU not forgetting the vital protections for workers and the poorest regions of the Union, as well as arguing that the EU is the most successful peace process in world history. 

The party must be a vehicle for social liberalism and social democracy and I hope the party’s ambitious new welfare policies are not side-lined during the upcoming general election campaign. Social justice needs to be at the forefront of any future Liberal Democrat campaign, alongside our commitment to “Stop Brexit”. I encourage the party to reconnect with its radical political heritage, build on the big ideas of the past and develop new and imaginative narratives for the present.

As a lifelong social liberal, social justice and its capacity to advance individual freedom has been consistently my driving passion in politics and will continue to be so. It was after all the ideals of that great social liberal, Charles Kennedy which originally drew me into the Liberal Democrats in the first place. I would plea with the party to reach out more to working class communities and to recognise that the Remain cause is not just limited to middle class areas. In my native Blackpool for example, despite the high Leave vote in the EU Referendum, almost 22,000 people voted Remain. It is votes like these which could prove pivotal in any future People’s Vote referendum.

I hope my close Liberal Democrat friends will forgive me if I appear a little distant over the next couple of years. I will of course remain easily contactable on E-mail, Facebook and Twitter. I may be taking a break from party political activism, but my involvement in the study of politics as a social science is only going to increase. This is an exciting moment in the history of the Liberal Democrats. I will continue to be with you in spirit and wish you all the luck, good fortune and success over the next 2-3 years.

The Three Possible Outcomes of Brexit

At the weekend I joined over 100,000 other people marching for a ‘People's Vote’ in London. This marked the second anniversary of when Britain narrowly voted to leave the European Union. Negotiations to formally leave the EU have been ongoing for the last 15 months. As things currently stand, Britain will Brexit on 29 March 2019.

Forget soft or hard Brexit, neither seems likely to happen. There is hardly any sign that Britain is heading towards a soft Brexit, where Britain remains inside the Single Market and the Customs Union after Brexit. The House of Commons recently rejected the opportunity to stay within the European Economic Area (EEA). The Conservative Government appears reluctant to commit to any kind of customs union, especially since the Labour opposition now support ‘a customs union’. The linchpin of any soft Brexit is membership of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA). However, there is no sign that either the government nor the opposition is considering EFTA membership, let alone actively putting together a formal application to re-join EFTA.

As for a hard Brexit, the EU is unlikely to grant a Brexit deal that allows for all of the current benefits with none of the costs. Tory Brexit fantasists who dream of a ‘Global Britain’ are living in a previous century. With the rise of right wing populists in central Europe from Italy to Austria and potentially even Germany; there is even less chance of Brussels conceding to the wishes of hard Brexiters. Added to this, the lucrative trade deals that were promised by hard Brexiters seem currently next to non-existent. Hard Brexit was always a delusional fantasy and as reality begins to dawn this is especially the case.

There are only three possible outcomes to the Brexit negotiations; No Brexit, Free Fall Brexit and Zombie Brexit.

No Brexit

A No Brexit scenario is where Britain doesn't leave the EU after all. It may be the case that after two years of negotiations, given the looming impact on the economy and businesses quitting the UK, that government ministers pull the plug on Brexit. It may also prove to be the case that due to a mixture of government incompetence and unrealistic expectations that the Brexit negotiations fall flat. Should the issue of the Northern Ireland border prove to be insurmountable, then the government could choose to abandon Brexit as the best way of maintaining peace on the island of Ireland.

There would be an obvious political cost to a government that has devoted itself to the project of Brexit. Right wing newspapers would be merciless in their attacks on the government. The Prime Minister may be forced to resign and the Conservative Party itself could fracture. The potential political chaos of a No Brexit scenario would be minuscule compared to the potential economic and diplomatic chaos caused by the next possible Brexit outcome.

Free Fall Brexit

            

Unlike with the No Brexit scenario, where Britain steps back from the cliff edge; this event is where we collectively jump off the cliff. This is when negotiations fall flat and come to nothing and we choose to Brexit regardless. No transition deal, no economic safety net, no protection for citizens' rights, no open border on the island of Ireland, no trade deal and no preparation for the loss of EU rules and regulations. In other words, Britain goes into free fall.

This could potentially be the biggest political crisis in modern British political history. The worst-case scenario would be like the Suez Crisis and the 2008 Financial Crisis rolled into one. This would leave lasting (and possibly permanent) damage to our economy, our living standards and our diplomatic relations around the world.

There is another potential fear attached to a Free Fall Brexit and that is the rise of political extremism. Far from undermining the hard right, a Free Fall Brexit could embolden them yet further. Take for example the rise of hate crimes that followed the Brexit vote in 2016. An uglier, more hateful and nationalistic form of politics could emerge if we collectively jump off a cliff edge.

Zombie Brexit

            

The final possible outcome of Brexit is a Zombie Brexit. This is where Britain is kept in a perpetual limbo state many years after officially leaving the European Union. This is the fudge of a never-ending Brexit transition deal; where Britain is neither officially inside nor outside the Customs Union and the Single Market. Britain would be unable to strike trade deals with other countries and membership of EFTA would be impossible. Britain would be utterly powerless, both politically and economically; nothing more than a voiceless piece of flotsam and jetsam on the periphery of a European economic superpower.

The effect on the country would be a state of semi-permanent political and economic paralysis. Uncertainty for business would be rife and as a result Britain would be over-exposed to any future economic crisis. This Brexit of the living dead would achieve one unexpected outcome, which is managing to enrage A.C. Grayling, Anna Soubry and Jacob Rees-Mogg in equal measure. This zombie-like fudge of a Brexit would satisfy neither Remainers, nor soft Brexiters, nor hard Brexiters.

A People’s Vote: Our Last Hope?

            

As the Brexit deadline looms ever nearer, one of these outcomes seems extremely likely. None come without consequences, however the No Brexit scenario is by far the least damaging. There may however be one way for the government to limit the potential risks and that is to hold a ‘People's Vote’ in early 2019. Ironically this could offer the Tory government the only meaningful way of saving face when confronted with the potential calamity of Brexit. Should the Tories refuse to give the people the final say, then their electoral prospects look dire regardless of which outcome comes to pass. However, this is nothing compared to the lasting damage of a Zombie or Free Fall Brexit. By accident or design Brexit must be stopped. Britain's place in the 21st century depends upon it.

Bombing Syria is a Mistake

Today, Parliament will likely vote to start British air strikes in Syria. This is a mistake. Britain should not get entangled in yet another Middle East war without a long term plan.

No-one knows how to actually defeat ISIS or end the Syrian Civil War. Do we have a timetable for a long term plan or for starting peace negotiations? No. Do we have an exit strategy? No. This war will take years, perhaps even decades to resolve.

Bombing alone will not defeat ISIS, we need strong ground forces. Is there anything that British bombs will achieve that American, Russian or French bombs can't achieve? No.

The Syrian Civil War is five-sided conflict between the Assad Government, the Free Syrian Army, the Syrian Kurds, ISIS and smaller Islamist groups. Currently America, Russia, France, Australia, Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Jordon, Qatar and Bahrain are all involved in Syria. In short, Syria’s complex.

Are ISIS just in Syria and Iraq? No. ISIS are also in Libya and Nigeria, with affiliates in Yemen, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Are we going to bomb all these countries? Probably not.

I’m not a pacifist, I want to stop ISIS. But bombing will not achieve this, primarily because western air strikes have been going on for months in Syria with very little results. Instead of bombing we should use our resources to arm and train the Kurds.

The Syrian Kurdish ideology “Democratic Confederalism” mixes libertarian local democracy with secularism and feminism. The Kurds are well-organised and they have been effective in combating ISIS in Northern Syria. Unfortunately, many groups like the Assad Government and several Islamist groups are almost as bad as ISIS. Also it’s unclear how many of the Free Syrian Army are still “moderates”.

I encourage all MPs to vote against British air strikes in Syria (especially Liberal Democrat MPs). Instead, we should arm, train and equip the Syrian Kurds. We also must start to negotiate a long term peace plan for Syria, post-ISIS. Britain must not bomb Syria, it would be a mistake on a par with Suez or Iraq in 2003. Wars are very easy to get into, they are much more difficult to get out of.

Why I oppose British air strikes in Syria

Westminster is gearing up for war in Syria. Following the horrific Paris Attacks, a couple of weeks ago, the war against the so-called “Islamic State” (IS) has intensified. IS are a fascist death cult using one of the world’s great religions to try and justify its crimes. The need to challenge IS is fundamental, however I am opposed to the United Kingdom joining air strikes in Syria.

It is clear that David Cameron wants Britain to join other Western Powers in bombing the so-called “Islamic State”. However, air strikes are an ineffective military strategy. Air strikes have been going on in Syria for several months with only a minimal impact. Air strikes might be able to destroy some IS ground targets, but ultimately IS will have to be defeated on the ground. A military force will have to march into IS’ territory and take it from them. Of course, there are already ground forces in Syria; the Kurds, the Syrian Government and the Free Syrian Army.

Air strikes in Syria won’t defeat IS, primarily because IS are not just in Syria and Iraq. IS also has a presence in Libya and Nigeria as well as having affiliates in Yemen, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Are we going to start bombing in all these countries too? We must stop thinking in national terms. IS marry a medieval ideology with a modern globalist perspective. The impact of IS is felt across the Middle East, as well as many parts of Central Asia and North Africa.

Bombing in Syria will not make Britain safer, especially if there is no long term plan to reconstruct Syria, once the Civil War has ended. When Britain illegally invaded Iraq in 2003 and intervened in Libya in 2011, we did not have a long term plan. Following the conclusion of Western military interventions in Iraq and Libya, both countries descended into anarchy.

If Britain should not bomb in Syria, then how should we deal with the Syrian Civil War and the so-called Islamic State?

Britain should help those ground forces that are effective against IS; such as the Kurdish forces in Syria and Iraq. The Kurds desperately need help from the international community. They need the equipment, the training and the arms necessary to roll back IS. The Kurds are secular, well-organised and have a relatively positive view of human rights and women’s rights. Instead of bombing IS in Syria, we should us our resources to ensure that the Kurds are properly equipped and properly trained to combat IS on the ground.

Britain and the international community must facilitate peace talks and negotiations in Syria. They must include the Syrian Government, the Free Syrian Army and the Syrian Kurds. The West and Russia must get Assad to stand down. In-order to end the Syrian Civil War, the international community might have to be prepared to see the partition of Syria between the Syrian Government, the Free Syrian Army and the Kurds. A similar crisis to that which emerged following the break-up of Yugoslavia in the 1990s is a real possibility. The UN therefore would have to deploy peacekeepers and establish new borders for the partitioned Syria. Furthermore the UN and the International Community would have to draw up a long term plan for Syria, once peace is achieved.

In-order to defeat IS, we will have to challenge its Salafist Islamic Fundamentalist ideology. However the antidote to Islamic Fundamentalism is not Western Liberalism. The antidote to Islamic Fundamentalism is Islamic Liberalism. The West cannot impose Liberalism. We must support liberal voices within Islam and the Islamic World through our foreign policy. For example, we should stop selling arms to oppressive regimes in the Islamic World, such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is also a central exporter of Salafist ideology. In Britain, the media should change its negative depiction of Islam by giving a greater platform to liberal and mainstream Muslim voices.

Britain should not start air strikes in Syria; they are symbolic at best, and ineffective at worst. We should avoid a knee-jerk reaction to recent terrorist attacks. The Syrian Civil War is a five-sided conflict between Assad, the Free Syrian Army, the Kurds, the Islamic State and smaller Islamist groups. Syria is deeply complex. Wars are easy to get involved in; they are much more difficult to get out of.

Three things that Britain should do instead of bombing Syria:

1. Arm, equip and train the Kurds in Syria and Iraq.

2. Start diplomatic negotiations between the Syrian Government, the Free Syrian Army and the Syrian Kurds.

3. Support and promote liberal voices within Islam and the Islamic World.

Labour’s Great Ideological Showdown

This summer I’ve become gripped by a new TV drama. A TV drama being played out in front of the nation’s media with episodes of this drama shown on almost every edition of the nightly news. But sadly unlike most TV dramas this isn’t a work of fiction, it’s the Labour Leadership Contest.

The Labour Leadership Contest has turning into a massive duel between the two great traditions of Labour politics. On the one side you have the New Labour establishment represented by Andy Burnham, Yvette Cooper and Liz Kendall. On the other side you have the Old Labour socialist insurgent, Jeremy Corbyn. These are two great titans fighting to the death for the ideological soul of the Labour Party.

What makes this political duel so interesting is that according to the latest opinion polls Jeremy Corbyn is in the lead by some margin and very well could be Labour’s next leader. Corbyn who was initially seen as a distant outsider, has to horror of Blairites, become the favourite to win the contest. Tony Blair even labelled those MPs who nominated Corbyn as “morons”. To put a Corbyn win into some context, Labour hasn’t been led by an overtly socialist leader since Neil Kinnock in 1992. Furthermore, Labour has not been led by someone outside the party’s establishment since at least before the Second World War. Even Michael Foot served as a cabinet minister before becoming Labour’s leader.

As a member of the Liberal Democrats, I cannot even begin to contrast the huge differences between the Labour Leadership Election and the Lib Dem Leadership Election. The Lib Dem Leadership Contest was a mostly private affair conducted at regional hustings and through social media and the internet. The short two month contest resulted in a clear victory for Tim Farron, with Norman Lamb transitioning seamlessly from leadership rival to frontbench Health Spokesperson. Tim Farron has already begun to make his mark by leading Lib Dem MPs to oppose Osborne’s latest welfare cuts. While a divided and indecisive Labour Party chose to abstain in the welfare cuts vote.

Labour quite clearly faces a big battle for the party’s soul, maybe even for the party’s very existence in the long term. But how on Earth did Labour go from promoting its own version of Thatcherism to being on the verge of electing a genuinely socialist leader? Despite New Labour’s three successive election victories, it failed to take many traditional Labour supporters with it. Tony Blair’s gamble was that Labour supporters would remain loyal to the party, despite New Labour’s embrace of the Thatcherite free market. This gamble would only work if there wasn’t a credible progressive alternative to Labour. However recently a progressive alternative emerged in Scotland in the form of the Scottish National Party (SNP). The SNP went on this year to annihilate Labour in Scotland.

New Labour didn’t just alienate people in Scotland but many progressive voters across England and Wales as well. Blair hollowed out the Labour Party leaving behind an ideological void, which Burnham, Cooper and Kendall have struggled to fill. However despite its lack of principles New Labour did achieve three successive election victories, the first and only time Labour has achieved this.

Here’s Labour’s problem, New Labour is as much an outdated project as socialism. New Labour supporters lack a distinctive message in an age of economic insecurities. Burnham, Cooper and Kendall are three career driven, media managed politicians made in the model of New Labour. Corbyn is anything but.  Does Corbyn look like a potential Prime Minister? No, but it seems difficult to see how any of the candidates have the skills, charisma and imagination needed to get Labour back into power.

This Labour Leadership Contest will define the party for a generation. Will the New Labour modernisers triumph or shall socialism be resurrected from the grave? In the aftermath of the vote, there is a great potential for rifts, fractures and SDP-style breakaways. Do I judge those Labour supporters (including a couple of my friends) who back Corbyn? No, I can hardly blame them for supporting a radical candidate in line with their values, when the only alternatives are so bland and unimaginative. 

From what I have seen of Labour’s Leadership Contest, it is clear that Yvette Cooper has the best leadership ability and that Jeremy Corbyn has the strongest values and principles. Regardless of who wins Labour’s great ideological showdown it is clear that the contest will finally determine which direction Labour takes. On the chance that Corbyn does go on to win, then the 2020 General Election will be the most democratically distinctive election since 1987. A genuine socialist party led by Jeremy Corbyn, a genuine liberal party led by Tim Farron and a genuine conservative party led (most likely) by George Osborne would be a fascinating prospect.

Values, Vision and Liberalism: It’s Time for Tim

Following on from a very difficult general election result, the leadership election is on to see who will take the Lib Dems through this tough time. Despite only having eight Members of Parliament, the Liberal Democrats have fielded two fantastic leadership candidates, Tim Farron and Norman Lamb. Both of these candidates are miles ahead of anything on offer in the Labour leadership election.

During our party's time in Coalition with the Conservatives we were undoubtedly a moderating influence on the Tory right. From raising the tax threshold, to the pupil premium, to restoring our civil liberties, to ensuring same-sex marriage, to defending workers rights, the Lib Dems achieved many progressive policies. However it is clear that during our time in Coalition we lost trust and we lost identity.

The party might only have a handful of MPs but it's vital that we choose a leader who is able to inspire Liberal Democrat supporters and regain the trust of those millions of voters that we have lost. The party needs a radical vision and a reassertion of our progressive liberal values. Beyond everything else we need a leader who is going to challenge the status quo of British politics and challenge the inequalities of British society and Britain's political system. I believe Tim Farron is the man to achieve this and to revive the cause of British liberalism.

Tim Farron has grasped a fundamental truth of modern politics, which is that in order to enact change you need to create a movement. A movement from the grassroots to the green benches of the House of Commons. A liberal movement committed to liberty, equality and community. A movement that understands that people need to be free from an overbearing state but also free from poverty and social inequality. Tim Farron has correctly identified the need for a house building revolution in Britain. Such a mission should be at the heart of any liberal movement along with tackling climate change and protecting Britain's human rights, civil liberties and EU membership.

For the last two decades millions of people across the country have become disillusioned and alienated from mainstream politics. This has resulted in the rise of nationalism in both Scotland and England. Those most alienated by British politics have been the most vulnerable members of society. I for one hope that Tim Farron can give a voice to those who have often been left voiceless. A hundred years ago, the Liberal Party was at the heart of a campaign to achieve social reform and to tackle the extreme poverty of the industrial age. Today the Lib Dems need to rediscover the spirit of the new liberals and restore a sense of community and compassion to British politics. The Lib Dems must champion hope over fear.

For any party or movement to succeed it needs a strong campaigning spirit. The community politics of the 1970s proved that even a small party with a few MPs can make a big difference. Tim Farron is a committed and experienced campaigner. He understands the importance of community politics and grassroots campaigning. I've seen first-hand what a committed campaigner Tim is in Westmorland and Lonsdale. He's taken what was a Tory safe seat less than two decades ago and transformed it into the safest Lib Dem seat in the country.

Britain needs radical liberal activism. It needs a liberal movement committed to liberty, social justice, the environment, house building and the EU. It needs the Lib Dems to spearhead this movement in Parliament and at the grassroots. The Lib Dems need a committed experienced campaigner leading the party. We need someone who can restore trust in the Liberal Democrats. We need someone with values, vision and with liberalism in their heart. It’s time for Tim Farron!!!

Where the Lib Dems Went Wrong

For the Liberal Democrats the general election was the worst in terms of seats won since 1970. No one expected the Lib Dems to be reduced to just eight seats. This article will examine where the Lib Dems went wrong and what could account for such a dreadful result.

Losing Trust

The Liberal Democrats were right to go into Coalition, but we made a few massive mistakes none bigger than the decision over tuition fees. For much of the last few decades the Lib Dems prided themselves on trust. In the 2010 general election hundreds of thousands of young voters voted for the party over its policy to abolish tuition fees. Famously, Nick Clegg and a few other Lib Dem MPs broke their pledges not to increase tuition fees (although 21 Lib Dem MPs kept their pledges). This action to increase tuition fees was seen in the eyes of many young voters as a betrayal. Despite the repeated attempts by Nick Clegg and other Lib Dem ministers to explain the new tuition fees policy, their message was simply ineffective given the loss of trust. More than any other issue tuition fees destroyed the Lib Dem reputation for trust from which the party never recovered during its time in Coalition.

Coalition Conformity and the loss of Identity

The Conservative-Lib Dem Coalition was the first coalition since 1945. Therefore the leadership of the Lib Dems felt an added burden on proving that coalitions could result in stable governments. While no one would doubt that the Coalition was stable, the sense of Coalition conformity that resulted from the commitment to the Coalition ended up in a loss of identity for the party. The Lib Dem identity became almost unrecognisable with both Tory and Lib Dem ministers in every major department. The party also completely failed to successfully differentiate itself from its coalition partners. Although we undoubtedly made the Coalition fairer than it otherwise would have been; ultimately the net result of our efforts was to detoxify the Tory party and toxify our own party.

Demolition of the Local Government base

In electoral terms there was clear evidence that the party strategy was not yielding any reward. From 2011 until 2015 the party lost thousands of councillors. For a party that depends on having a strong local government base in order to win at a parliamentary level, this was a major blow to our ambitions at the general election. Added to this the party suffered massive setbacks in Scotland, Wales, London and in the European Elections. Although our local government base held up relatively well in some part of southern England, in northern England and Scotland it was annihilated. We should have realised much earlier on in 2011 or 2012 that the loss of our local government base was a harbinger of disaster in the general election.

Valueless Centrism

The leadership ditched the party's historic centre-left stance in favour of a committed centrism. Their aim was to try and revive the mythical equidistance of the past. At a time when the party leadership needed to renew its distinctive centre-left values it abandoned them. The strategy of equidistance and centrism was always doomed to fail. How can you be truly equidistance when you're in coalition with a centre-right party and refuse to defend your historic centre-left values? The party has never been truly equidistant, even in the Ashdown years the party was closer to the Labour, shown through the speculation of a Labour-Lib Dem coalition in 1992 and the Blair-Ashdown talks of the mid-1990s. Centrist equidistance was a failed strategy instead we should have outlined a much more distinctive left of centre liberal platform to engage our lost voters and to enable us to much more effectively differentiate us from the Tories.

Defending the Status Quo

People don’t vote for coalitions. I hate to say it but it's true. People vote for political parties. To frame an entire election campaign around forming a future coalition alienated voters from the radicalism of the Lib Dems. The party became the only true defender of the Coalition status quo. Instead of giving people reasons to vote for a future Lib Dem government we were giving voters early compromises on a potential future coalition. No party can both claim to be radical and defend the status quo. This was at a time when other parties were challenging the status quo; the Lib Dems became in the eyes of the public the most uninteresting of the parties. The party's leadership lost touch with its core radicalism and instead became the party of "stability, unity and decency.” The Lib Dems should know more than any other party that there are few votes in defending the status quo especially when you are a third or fourth party.

Learning the Lessons

The party has an uphill battle to regain the trust of the public, especially amongst young people. We should ensure that any future signed party pledges are amongst our election priorities. We failed to do this with tuition fees in 2010 and we paid the price.

In any future coalitions instead of trying to cover all departments we should have ministers in the leading departments and have a department entirely for our ministers to demonstrate Lib Dem policies in action. A good example of such a department would be the Department for Education.

The future leadership of the party should realise that if the current strategy is resulting in massive electoral losses that the party should change it promptly. Equidistant centrism has been a disaster for our party; the party will have to return to its centre-left roots if it is to recover its lost support.

Liberals should never defend the status quo, they should always seek to change it. Losing touch with our core radicalism was the final nail in the coffin of the party's electoral ambitions. The party must learn from its lessons so that in the future the great cause of liberalism can rise again.

Why YOU Must Vote!!!

It's that time again, politicians from left and right are out pounding the pavements across the country looking for people to vote for them. The 2015 general election campaign looks like it will be the closest election in decades. Either Labour or the Conservatives could win it and the Liberal Democrats, or the SNP are likely to be the kingmakers.

The political marketplace is now more crowded than it has ever been and yet millions of people at this election will not even bother to vote. Not to mention the fact that hundreds of thousands may not have even bothered to register to vote, many of which will be students. I think this is nothing less than a national tragedy. Our democracy is so important and yet millions are disengaged from it.

Politicians from all parties must of course take some of the blame for the level of political disengagement. Trust in politics is at an all-time low and parties across the spectrum lack distinctive positive visions. Not to mention the fact that many politicians come from privileged social backgrounds that often seem alien to most voters. Despite this fact there are more viable choices to vote for than ever before.

One hundred years ago not a single woman or a single poor person of either gender had the right to vote and we are still one of the significant minority of countries that have a genuine democracy that is free and fair. We cannot take our democracy for granted we must use our voting rights and always seek to improve and reform our democracy.

Beyond all other things democracy embodies political equality. It is the only true and absolute equality that we have. Everyone regardless of wealth, race, gender, class, ability/disability, age and sexual orientation has just one vote. Regardless of whether you are a banker or use a food bank you have just one vote. Regardless of whether you are the Prime Minister or an ordinary person you have just one vote.

British democracy has faced many threats. We achieved universal democracy in the aftermath of the First World War, but our grandparents soon had to fight to defend it against the Nazis in the Second World War. For the five decades that followed, Britain faced an equally big threat to our democracy coming from communism and the Soviet Union.

History has shown us the tireless work of campaigners around the world to achieve democracy; from George Washington to Martin Luther King, from Emmeline Pankhurst to Aung San Suu Kyi, from Mahatma Gandhi to Nelson Mandela. All of these political campaigners had to fight against those who were prepared to deny them their fundamental democratic rights. Such people didn't struggle to achieve our democratic rights just so they could be squandered by apathy.

Over the next five weeks engage with the political parties and take the opportunity to use your fundamental democratic rights. No one will ever listen to your voice if you are not prepared to use it. Of course there is the feeling that people have been ignored by politicians; so for goodness sake MAKE THEM LISTEN TO YOU!!! Don't be passive and apathetic, MAKE YOUR VOICE COUNT!!! Use the democratic rights that your great-grandmothers chained themselves to Parliament to achieve; and your grandfathers fought a world war to defend. Don't take democracy for granted, because in many parts of the world it does not exist. People from Hong Kong to Cairo are campaigning for democracy today. Even in this so-called advanced democracy; true democracy is less than 100 years old.

There is such a wide range of political parties out there.

The Conservatives have pledged to tackle the deficit with spending cuts and tax cuts.

Labour aims to strengthen social fairness and improve living standards.

The Liberal Democrats are the only party with a commitment to fill the £8 billion funding gap in the NHS, also they have radical plans to ensure civil liberties and political reform.

UKIP want Britain to leave the European Union and stop immigration.

The Green Party wants to stop climate change and renationalise the railways.

The Scottish National Party want to make Scotland an independent country.

These are just the core issues that define the leading parties, they have many more policies as well.

On May 7^th ensure your political citizenship by casting a vote. And if you really can't bring yourself to vote for any party, then you should consider standing as an independent. If no-one is prepared to listen to you, then you make them listen to you through campaigning and persuading people. Democracy has the power to radically change things. Apathy is not an option and frankly it is an insult to all those around the world who struggle for democracy.  OUR DEMOCRACY WILL ONLY REMAIN VIABLE IF PEOPLE LIKE YOU BOTHER TO VOTE!!!

My Ideas for the 2015 TV Debates

There is currently a lot of talk in the media about future television debates during the 2015 general election. In 2010 the Conservative Party, the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats were involved. However now there are calls for the leaders of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), the Green Party, the Scottish National party (SNP) and Plaid Cymru to also be included.

Obviously, the Conservative Party and the Labour Party should be included in all three televised election debates. The Liberal Democrats with their record in government over the last five years and there realistic potential to hold the balance of power after the election this year means that they should be included.

UKIP should be included in two of the election debates to take account of their considerable support in the opinion polls, as well as their recent by-election and European Election victories. As for the Green Party, they have seen a notable increase in their support in recent months and this means they should be included in one of the debates. The Green party should not be included in any other debates because they will not hold the balance of power after the general election. This being said if the Green’s support continues to grow after 2015 they might be eligible for more than one debate in 2020.

The SNP have seen a massive surge in their support after the Scotland referendum. They should be included in one debate to take account of this, but due to the fact that they only stand in Scotland, they shouldn't be included in the other two debates. Furthermore there should be Scotland only debates between the main parties in Scotland. The Welsh nationalist party, Plaid Cymru should be included in Wales only debates. As for the national TV debates, I see no evidence to justify why Plaid Cymru should be involved.

I suggest that there should be three TV debates and that there should be a two week period between each debate. In 2015 the general election campaign will last five weeks and with a fortnight gap it will ensure that the campaign isn't entirely dominated by the debates.

The Grand Debate

My idea for the first debate is what I am calling "The Grand Debate." The Grand Debate would include six party leaders. These leaders would be David Cameron (Conservative Party), Ed Miliband (Labour Party), Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrats), Nigel Farage (UKIP), Nicola Sturgeon (SNP) and Natalie Bennett (Green Party). This debate will last for two hours (to take account of the large number of participants) and it would be entirely based on issues of any policy area. This could include questions on the economy, home affairs, foreign affairs, law and justice, the environment, health, education and welfare etc.

The Domestic and Foreign Affairs Debate

The second debate would be entirely on domestic and foreign affairs issues. The duration of this debate would be an hour and a half. 45 minutes will be on domestic affairs and 45 minutes will be on foreign affairs. Cameron, Miliband, Clegg and Farage should all be included in this debate. All of these parties have expressed strong positions on domestic and foreign affairs. The Greens and the SNP should not be included for the reasons stated earlier.

The Prime Ministerial Debate

The purpose of this third and final debate is to discuss economic issues. Like the second debate it would last for one and a half hours. One hour would be devoted entirely to the economy with the final 30 minutes devoted to any policy area. This debate would include the three main party leaders; David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg. The purpose of it is to give them an opportunity to outline their economic vision and defend their economic records in government. UKIP should not be included in this final debate due to their lack of a clear narrative on the economy and their primary focus being placed on foreign affairs issues and a few domestic issues.

My TV Election Debate Format

The Grand Debate                                            2^nd April 2015        

David Cameron     Ed Miliband     Nick Clegg     Nigel Farage

Nicola Sturgeon     Natalie Bennett

Themes: Any Policy Area (2 Hours)

The Domestic and Foreign Affairs Debate   16^th April 2015      

David Cameron     Ed Miliband     Nick Clegg     Nigel Farage

Themes: Domestic Affairs (45 Minutes) Foreign Affairs (45 Minutes)

The Prime Ministerial Debate                       30^th April 2015

David Cameron     Ed Miliband     Nick Clegg    

Themes: The Economy (1 Hour) Any Policy Area (30 Minutes)

2015: A Landmark Year in British Politics?

The State of the Political Parties

2015 has the potential to be a landmark year in British politics. The general election that is likely to happen on 7^th May 2015 is both the most exciting election and the most unpredictable election since 1974. There are six political parties that are getting noteworthy support: the Conservative Party, the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats, the UK Independence Party (UKIP), the Green Party and the Scottish National Party (SNP).

Conservative Party

David Cameron has been the Prime Minister for the last five years and he will be aiming to win a second term in government. It seems very unlikely due to the electoral arithmetic that the Conservatives will win an outright majority. More likely, the Tories could be the largest party again in a Hung Parliament. Over the past year the Tories have been fighting a right wing rearguard action against UKIP; following the defection of two Tory MPs to UKIP in the last few months. The Tories will aim to move the political argument away from immigration and onto the economy. Tory strategists anticipate that their management of the economy will be their biggest vote winner in 2015.

Labour Party

Throughout 2014, the Labour Party has been narrowly ahead of the Conservatives in the opinion polls. If this trend holds until election day, Labour could win the election outright but with a small majority. Failing that, Labour could seek to be the biggest party in another Hung Parliament. Despite Labour being more popular in the opinion polls, Ed Miliband is far less popular than David Cameron in the leadership polls. For Labour the big issue in 2015 is likely to be living standards. Despite reasonable economic growth, there is still considerable youth unemployment and up until very recently inflation was far above wage increases. Unpopular policies like cuts to public services and the bedroom tax as well as the potential for a crisis in the NHS, will be vote winners for Labour in 2015.

Liberal Democrats

Over the last Parliament the Liberal Democrats have lost over half of its electoral support and has been repeatedly hammered at the ballot box. However despite this, the Liberal Democrats are the most likely party to still be in power after May 2015 especially if there is another Hung Parliament. Furthermore, incumbent Lib Dem MPs are on average much more popular than their Labour or Tory counterparts. As a result the Lib Dems might hold onto more seats than the opinion polls are currently predicting due to the strength of their local incumbency. The Lib Dem leadership is trying to strike a balance between a stronger economy and a fairer society. In 2015, the ambition of the Lib Dem leadership is to be once again the kingmaker in another Hung Parliament.

UKIP

UKIP over the last two years has taken advantage of angry protest voters who are dissatisfied with the mainstream parties. This has led to a considerable rise in UKIP’s support making them the third most popular party in most opinion polls. In May 2014, UKIP won the European Elections. UKIP benefited this year from two defections from the Conservative Party and two subsequent by-election victories. UKIP in 2015 will be focusing primarily on the issue of immigration hoping to win support from traditional Tory voters as well as some angry Labour voters. UKIP will be hoping to win several seats in parliament in 2015.

Green Party

Over the last few months, the Green Party has seen a notable rise in its support in the opinion polls. In a few opinion polls the Greens even briefly overtook the Lib Dems. Of the six parties, the Greens are the most left wing and have adopted a socialist economic platform, thus making them the most anti-austerity party of those that I have mentioned. Despite their rise in support, the Greens are unlikely to win more than two or three seats in 2015 due to the electoral system. However 2015 might act as preparation for a true electoral breakthrough for the Greens in 2020.

Scottish National Party

The SNP are undoubtedly the party of 2014. The political year was dominated by the run-up to the Scottish independence referendum and its aftermath. Despite the Unionist parties being victorious; the SNP has seen an astonishing rise in its political support in the aftermath of the referendum. The Scottish National Party is now the third largest party in Britain after its membership more than trebled after the referendum. In the opinion polls the SNP vote has soared in Scotland. The rise of the SNP has placed Scottish Labour in deep peril. Nicola Sturgeon will be aiming for the SNP to become the largest party in Scotland at the general election. Some opinion polls have shown the Scottish National Party winning over 40 seats in Scotland.

Another Hung Parliament?

As we go into 2015 and it looks very unlikely that any political party will be able to win an overall majority. Another Hung Parliament is probably the most likely outcome of the next general election. 2015 will likely test the first past the post voting system like never before. When six political parties are getting a considerable share of the vote, a voting system that only benefits two parties will see not only outdated but undemocratic. The implications on the British constitution of another Hung Parliament are profound and are unprecedented.  

Who will be the next Deputy Prime Minister?

General elections are dominated by speculation of who could be the next Prime Minister; however in 2015 as much speculation might be paid to who could be the next Deputy Prime Minister.

Nick Clegg will be hopeful of winning a second term as Deputy Prime Minister. The Liberal Democrats could potentially go into coalition with either the Conservatives or Labour. However, will the party have much appetite for another coalition with the Conservatives, especially from the perspective of the social liberals within the party? Furthermore, will the Orange Bookers have much enthusiasm for a coalition with Labour after opposing them for five years?

If UKIP’s support surge is realised in 2015 it is not entirely impossible that Nigel Farage could hold the balance of power. It is likely that UKIP could form a right wing coalition with the Conservatives, however Farage hasn't ruled out doing a deal with the Labour Party. Farage will no doubt call for strict limits on immigration as well as an immediate referendum on Britain's membership of the EU.

Alex Salmond (if he is returned as an MP) could hold the balance of power in a Hung Parliament in 2015 especially if the SNP become the largest party in Scotland. The SNP won't work with the Conservatives however Salmond could strike a deal with Labour which more than likely will include devolving considerably more powers to the Scottish Parliament.

Two General Elections in 2015?

At the beginning of this article I compared the 2015 general election to 1974. In 1974, there were two general elections in one year. Could the same happen again in 2015? If there is an indecisive result will either Labour or the Conservatives take the opportunity of having a second general election at the end of 2015? This is exactly what Harold Wilson did in 1974. Labour was the biggest party in a Hung Parliament after the February election, however the Liberal Party didn't have enough seats to form a coalition with either party. A few months later, Wilson called another election in October 1974. Could either Cameron or Miliband in 2015 follow Wilson's example and call a second election, if no viable government or coalition can be formed after the first election?

Austerity Forever in 2015?

Britain has been experiencing austerity since 2008. In Britain, the Conservatives are talking about continuing austerity until 2020. Tory austerity will negatively impact upon already squeezed local government budgets and will lead to additional cuts in public services and the welfare state. Labour and the Liberal Democrats will cut less than the Conservatives and increase taxes on the wealthy in order to reduce the deficit.

There are small cracks emerging in the austerity consensus. The SNP and the Greens have been running increasingly on an anti-austerity platform. Even within the political mainstream; social democrats in the Labour Party and social liberals in the Liberal Democrats are tiring of austerity and are contemplating a Keynesian alternative. Added to this, the austerity policies of the Eurozone might change if left wing governments get elected in Greece and Spain. Could 2015 be the last austerity election?

The Future of British Politics

The general election in 2015 could be a landmark election. It will certainly be very exciting and might be the defining election of a generation. It may even have the potential to usher in a new era in British politics similar to the elections in 1906, 1918, 1945, and 1979. What is beyond question is that British politics has never been more interesting and British democracy never more exciting.

Lancaster University Liberal Democrats Annual General Meeting Speech 2014

This is the speech I gave to the Annual General Meeting of the Lancaster University Liberal Democrats on Wednesday 5^th November 2014.

Check the speech against delivery.

Lancaster University Liberal Democrats

It’s great to be here at the Annual General Meeting at Lancaster University Liberal Democrats. In six months time will we will be having a general election. It's safe to say that this one will be quite different from the one in 2010. In 2010 every other window on campus had an orange diamond poster in it.

However despite recent setbacks, LU Lib Dems must be a campaigning society and must be unafraid to put the case for liberalism and the Liberal Democrats to the students at Lancaster University over the next few months.

Lancaster Local Elections

On the same day as the general election we have the local elections taking place in Lancaster. It is very important that students from the Society have the opportunity to stand in the local elections especially here on the University ward and in the Ellel ward that encompasses South West campus.

Locally we should aim to get as many Lib Dems elected and potentially once again hold the balance of power on Lancaster City Council. To do this, it is very important that we rediscover community politics and we should start right here on the university campus.

General Election 2015

The next general election will be the toughest since the merger of the Liberal Party and the SDP in 1988. Things will be very tough in Labour leaning areas however don't be surprised if we make gains against the Conservatives.

Locally for example we should aim to regain the Lower Lune Valley Ward from the Conservatives. Nationally too we stand a very good chance of taking marginal seats off the Conservatives; seats such as Bosworth in the East Midlands, Watford in Eastern England and Camborne and Redruth in the South West.

A Free and Just Society

We Liberal Democrats must not forget our historic objective of creating a free and a just society.

The Labour Party cannot be trusted with our liberty. New Labour sought to erode our civil liberties with ID cards and 90 days detention without charge. Furthermore let's never forget their illegal invasion of Iraq.

The Conservative party cannot be trusted to achieve social justice. Our party has been absolutely right to oppose housing benefit cuts for young people, the Tory fire at will proposals and our party conference has voted against free schools and the NHS reforms.

We should also congratulate Andrew George for introducing a bill to protect the most vulnerable from the worst aspects of the bedroom tax.

In government, we've protecting civil liberties by scrapping ID cards, limiting detention without charge and by removing innocent people from the DNA database. Furthermore, we were absolutely right to oppose Theresa May’s Snoopers Charter.

We have also helped to create a fairer society. We have lifted low paid workers out of paying income tax. We have helped the most disadvantaged children in the country through the pupil premium. And Steve Webb has ensured the fairest and most generous pensions system in a hundred years.

Also we must not forget that we have done much to create a more equal society. It was Liberals who abolished slavery and who gave women the right to vote; and we must also be proud that we have introduced equal marriage giving gay and lesbian couples the same rights as heterosexual couples. Thanks to Lynne Featherstone.

We are also going to tackle inequalities in health care. One of our priorities at the next general election will be to ensure that mental health issues receive equal care and have equal waiting times with physical health issues. This will save many lives and help many more.

The Green People’s Budget

In 1909, David Lloyd George gave his People's Budget, which laid the foundations for the welfare state. In the 21st century, it is time for a new People's Budget. A Green People's Budget is needed to tackle three of the big issues facing modern Britain; climate change, unemployment and housing shortages.

This Green People's Budget would directly stimulate the building of new houses and green infrastructure such as wind turbines, solar panels, geothermal and tidal energy sources. Britain desperately needs new homes and to ensure a safe future, we need to be doing a lot more to tackle climate change. The Green People's budget would aim to achieve both, and in the process will grow the economy and will create thousands of new jobs in the housing, environmental, and science and technology industries.

Now I know what you're thinking how is this going to be paid for?

Firstly, I'm not sure why we spend billions of pounds every year on an outdated Trident nuclear defence system, which heaven forbid we will never use. At the very least we should cut back the number of nuclear weapons and downgrade to a cheaper weapons system; or potentially consider scrapping our nuclear weapons entirely.

Secondly, the original People's Budget placed great emphasis on land value taxation and I think it's about time that land taxes were introduced on wealthy estates and on wealthy land owners.

Tim Farron often talks about creating a new consensus. I hope that the Green People's budget will be a central pillar of the new consensus that we Liberal Democrats want to create.

Freedom from Authoritarianism, Freedom from Poverty, Freedom from Climate Change

In the next few months, in places like this campus our party will begin the road to recovery.

We must always be a party that will stand up for the social justice of the most disadvantaged members of society; and be a party that will stand up for the civil liberties of everyone in society.

We must have no time for the politics of nationalism wherever it comes from UKIP or the SNP. We must always remain proud to be a pro-European and a pro-immigration party.

British politics needs radical reform; we need to reform our voting system, start electing the House of Lords and ensure federalism for the whole of the UK, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, Cornwall and the English regions too.

Above all, we must reject the authoritarianism of the Labour Party, the Thatcherism of the Conservative party and the xenophobia of parties like UKIP. Britain faces many challenges in 2014 and only the Liberal Democrats have the answers to them.

Liberals are the champions of freedom; freedom from state authority, freedom from poverty and freedom from climate change. Young people must be the vanguard of this Liberal Movement.

Now, let’s get out there and build the freer and fairer society that we all want to see; and let’s ensure that no one is enslaved by poverty, ignorance or conformity.